Jevans’ Law: Regarding The Increase of Spam, Phishing and Crimeware?
Tuesday, November 28th, 2006Hi,
Sorry for the delay in posting. I’ve been travelling in snowy Canada this week.
There are many different ways to measure it… none of which are 100% acuracte. But here is how I measure it:
– amount of spam that gets through my filters
– chatter on private anti-spam mailing lists
– news reports of various antispam vendors tougting their measurements (service providers seem more reliable, as they see more email)
But basically, the story is the same. Spam volumes have increased by 100% – 300% in the last 3 months.
Yeah, botnets are to blame. But really, this is simply the logical response of spammers to increasingly more effective and widespread spam filters, phising toolbars and phishing filters build intlo web brosers, etc.
Some guessed that they had this firepower lurking, but now we know for sure.
Perhaps there is a new variant of Metcalf’s law lurking here (Jevans’ law:-)? Every 12 months, the volume of email attacks doubles, as does their technological sophistication.
We have noted a concommitant massive increase in the number of unique phishing URLs over the last 3 months. The bad guys are making it harder for blacklists to keep up…..
We’ve seen a monthly increase in phishing URLs from about 12k, to 20k, to 37k to 150k…..